D2 Baseball Crunch Time: Who Gets In? Analyzing Key Conference Tournament Races
- Robert Frey
- May 1
- 11 min read
As the Division II baseball regular season reaches its climax, the focus shifts sharply to conference tournaments and the battle for postseason berths. While teams jockey for position and fans track potential matchups, the scenarios can become complex, involving crucial final series and specific tiebreaker rules. This article will break down the qualification and seeding possibilities for five key conferences heading into their tournaments: the CCAA, GNAC, MIAA, NSIC, and PacWest. However, before diving into those intricate details, we'll highlight a standout team from a conference without a tournament – the Sunshine State Conference's dominant No. 2 University of Tampa Spartans, who are currently riding an impressive winning streak.
No.2 Tampa
Tampa has been on a tear lately, winners of their last 14 games (currently the highest active winning streak in D2 Baseball). Last weekend, the Spartans scored 16 or more runs in each game of the series against Eckerd in their final homestand of the regular season. Tampa scored 59 runs to Eckerd’s 7 total runs. How about Lenny Ashby on the weekend? He went 6-for-7 with 2 triples and 2 RBI. That boosted Ashby’s average over .300 to .301. Also, J.D. Urso had a weekend as well. He went 6-for-9 with a double, two triples, and six RBI. Jake Stipp threw five shutout innings and is 8-0 on the season. C.J. Williams also threw 5 shutout innings in his win and has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last four starts.
CCAA:
*Six Teams Get into the Tournament
As of this writing, three spots have been clinched (Cal State Dominguez Hills, San Francisco State, and Cal State Monterey Bay). Three spots remain between four teams (Chico State, Cal State LA, Cal State San Marcos, Cal State San Bernardino).
Cal State Dominguez Hills (24-12):
*Clinched spot in CCAA Tournament
Opponent: vs Cal State LA
For most of the regular season, Cal State Dominguez Hills (CSUDH) has been the leader in the CCAA. Now they have two teams either tied or a game back from them. The Toros can clinch the regular season title outright with a sweep over Cal State LA AND at least one loss from San Francisco State. CSUDH can also clinch the title outright with a series win over Cal State LA AND San Francisco State wins EXACTLY two games against Cal State Monterey Bay (CSUMB). CSUMB is one game behind, so if they are one win or better than CSUDH, the Otters can either clinch a share or win the title outright. There are also opportunities where CSUDH can clinch a share of the CCAA regular season title. Essentially, the Toros would need to have the same record over the weekend as San Francisco State OR has one less win that Cal State Monterey Bay. For CSUDH, their hope is that San Francisco State and Cal State Monterey Bay is an evenly matched series.
San Francisco State (24-12):
*Clinched spot in CCAA Tournament
Opponent: at Cal State Monterey Bay
San Francisco State has been on a mission in their last five conference series, winning all of five series. It was announced that this would be the final season of the baseball program at San Francisco State due to budget cuts. For the Gators, they are definitely playing like every game is their last. They have a tough task to claim the crown against Cal State Monterey Bay, someone that they played closely last year in the conference tournament and regionals. The path for San Francisco State to claim the title outright would be to win at least two games and Cal State Dominguez Hills to lose at least three. As long as San Francisco State outperforms CSUDH in the win column this weekend by winning two games, they will be crowned champions. Similar to above, San Francisco State can clinch a share of the title if they finish with the same amount of wins as CSUDH (as long as the Gators win 2+ games).
Cal State Monterey Bay (23-13):
*Clinched spot in CCAA Tournament
Opponent: vs San Francisco State
Cal State Monterey (CSUMB) recently released a new logo, which is great in anticipation of this crucial series. The Otters have an opportunity to claim the CCAA regular season title outright yet again. They will need to win at least three against SF State, while CSUDH needs to lose at least three games. Alternatively, CSUMB can clinch a share of the title with a series win or better and CSUDH wins one less game than the Otters.
Chico State (20-16):
Opponent: vs Stanislaus State
Chico State’s path to a tournament appearance is simple. The Wildcats win out, and they are in. Alternatively, if Chico State shares the same record this weekend as Cal State San Bernardino. They are also in. The Wildcats have the tiebreaker over CSUSB, but split their series against Cal State LA and Cal State San Marcos.
Cal State LA (20-16):
Opponent: at Cal State Dominguez Hills
Cal State LA can clinch a spot into the CCAA Tournament by sweeping Cal State Dominguez Hills, a tall task. Alternatively, the Golden Eagles can clinch if they have the same record this weekend as Cal State San Bernardino. The Golden Eagles split against both Cal State San Marcos and Chico State, but lost in a series to Cal State San Bernardino.
Cal State San Marcos (18-16):
Opponent: at Cal State San Bernardino
Cal State San Marcos had two games cancelled against Stanislaus State on March 15 and those games won’t be made up. Therefore, the Cougars will play two less conference games than the rest of the teams they’re in contention with. A series split or better by CSUSM will get them into the tournament, since they will be percentage points ahead of their opponent, Cal State San Bernardino.
Cal State San Bernardino (19-17):
Opponent: vs Cal State San Marcos
Cal State San Bernardino gets into the tournament with a series win or better over Cal State San Marcos. Alternatively, if Cal State San Bernardino finishes with the same record as Cal State LA with one spot remaining for the tournament, the Yotes will win the tiebreaker over the Golden Eagles, thus putting them in the tournament.
In the scenario that all three of Cal State San Bernardino, Cal State LA, and Chico State finish with the same record, here’s how the tiebreaker will go down.
First, the tiebreaker looks at head-to-head record, in there’s no conclusive evidence to break a tie. We go to the second tiebreaker which is this (per the CCAA Manual):
Rule b: "Each tied team's combined winning percentage against the other teams in the Tournament shall be compared." The clarification note below Step C further explains: "When arriving at a group of teams... each team's collective winning percentage against the group of teams... shall be compared...". This confirms we need to calculate the winning percentage for each team only against the other two teams involved in the tie.
Chico State: 2 wins vs CSULA + 3 wins vs CSUSB = 5 wins. 2 losses vs CSULA + 1 loss vs CSUSB = 3 losses. Record vs. tied group: 5-3 (.625)
CSUSB: 1 win vs Chico + 3 wins vs CSULA = 4 wins. 3 losses vs Chico + 1 loss vs CSULA = 4 losses. Record vs. tied group: 4-4 (.500)
CSULA: 2 wins vs Chico + 1 win vs CSUSB = 3 wins. 2 losses vs Chico + 3 losses vs CSUSB = 5 losses. Record vs. tied group: 3-5 (.375)
Ranking based on Rule b:
Chico State (.625)
CSUSB (.500)
CSULA (.375)
Meaning, if two spots were left available for the tiebreaker, it would first go to Chico State and then Cal State San Bernardino.
GNAC:
*Three Teams Get into the Tournament
Note: the GNAC this year no longer has an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Any team selected will be an at-large bid.
Northwest Nazarene (27-5):
*Clinched spot in GNAC Tournament
Northwest Nazarene has clinched the GNAC regular season title and are OFF this weekend.
Montana State Billings (19-9) has also clinched a spot into the conference tournament.
It comes down to two teams for the final spot. Central Washington (13-15) and Western Oregon (11-17). In the event of a tie, Central Washington holds the tiebreaker since they are 6-2 vs Western Oregon.
Central Washington
Opponent: Montana State Billings
Central Washington holds a two game advantage and the tiebreaker over Western Oregon. For the Wildcats to get in, all they need to do is win two games against Montana State Billings. Alternatively, Central Washington can get in with a win AND a loss by Western Oregon.
Western Oregon
Opponent: at Saint Martin’s
Western Oregon clinches the final tournament spot with at minimum a series win. The Wolves can clinch one of two ways:
Sweep Saint Martin’s AND Central Washington loses three of four games against MSU Billings
Win three against Saint Martin’s AND Central Washington gets swept by MSU Billing
MIAA
*Ten Teams get into the Tournament
New to 2025, the MIAA introduced a ten-team single elimination bracket. It’s win or go home for every single game.
Three teams can still at minimum claim a share of the MIAA regular season title. Nine teams have clinched a spot in the tournament. Two more teams are battling for the last spot. (Note: Arkansas-Fort Smith is 8-25 and can finish the season 11-25, potentially tied with both Northeastern State and Missouri Western. However, based on MIAA tiebreakers, there is no possible way UAFS can win any tiebreaker).
Central Missouri (26-7)
*Clinched a spot in the MIAA Tournament
Opponent: at Newman
The Mules can at minimum clinch a share of their sixth straight MIAA regular season title should they sweep Newman. Central Missouri can clinch the title outright with a sweep AND a Fort Hays State loss. Also, the Mules can clinch the title outright with a series win AND Fort Hays State loses two games. In any event of a tiebreaker, whether it be Fort Hays State and/or Pittsburgh State, the Mules would be the No.1 seed for the tournament.
Fort Hays State (26-7)
*Clinched a spot in the MIAA Tournament
Opponent: at Rogers State
The Tigers can also at minimum clinch a share of the regular season title with a sweep. Fort Hays State can clinch the title outright with a sweep AND one Central Missouri loss OR a series win AND two Central Missouri losses. Should Fort Hays State be in a tiebreaker for first with Pittsburg State, the Tigers would be the No.1 seed. Any tie with Central Missouri would go to the Mules.
Pittsburg State (24-9)
*Clinched a spot in the MIAA Tournament
Opponent: vs Arkansas-Fort Smith
Pittsburg State has an outside chance of claiming the regular season crown outright. Here’s what needs to happen. The Gorillas need to sweep UAFS AND Rogers State needs to sweep Fort Hays State (FHSU) AND Newman needs to sweep Central Missouri (UCM). Pittsburg State can clinch a share of the title with a sweep and two losses from both UCM and FHSU.
Central Oklahoma (21-12), Missouri Southern (17-16), Washburn (18-18), Rogers State (16-17), Emporia State (16-17), and Northwest Missouri State (16-17) have all clinched a spot in the MIAA tournament, leaving us with two teams for one spot.
Northeastern State (11-22)
Opponent: vs Missouri Southern
The Riverhawks have the head-to-head advantage against Missouri Western, so a sweep of Missouri Southern guarantees them the last spot in the tournament. Otherwise, Northeastern State needs to match the record or be one game better than Missouri Western this weekend. So, if Northeastern State goes 2-1, Missouri Western has to go 2-1 or worse, if Northeastern State goes 1-2, Missouri Western has to 1-2 or worse, etc.
Missouri Western (11-22)
Opponent: at Central Oklahoma
Partially similar to Northeastern State, Missouri Western can get in if any only if they finish with a better record than NSU. The Griffons can sweep Central Oklahoma AND have Northeastern State lose one game. Also, Missouri Western can win two of three and Northeastern State lose two games, etc. No matter what, for the Griffons to get in, they need to finish with at least one win more than Northeastern State.
NSIC
*Eight Teams Get into the Tournament
With their previous weekend series win over Augustana, Minnesota State (33-4) has clinched the NSIC Regular Season Title in the conference.
Augustana (27-10), Sioux Falls (23-14), and Wayne State (NE) (22-15) have also clinched a spot for the tournament. That leaves six teams for four spots in the final weekend of action. Let’s breakdown how these teams can get in.
St. Cloud State (20-17)
Opponent: at Bemidji State
St. Cloud State is currently in fifth place in the standings, needing a series win to clinch a spot into the NSIC Tournament. The Huskies also can clinch with a win AND losses by BOTH Southwest Minnesota State and Winona State.
UMary (19-18)
Opponent: vs Minnesota Duluth
UMary also has a relatively simple path to getting into the tournament, winning a series against Minnesota Duluth. Since the Marauders have the head-to-head advantage with BOTH Southwest Minnesota and Winona State, they get in with two wins this weekend. They can also get in with one win and a loss by both of those teams as well.
Minnesota Duluth (19-18)
Opponent: at UMary
Minnesota Duluth does not have the affordances that UMary has, but can get into the tournament with a sweep of UMary this weekend. Also, the Bulldogs can get in with a series win AND losses by BOTH Southwest Minnesota State and Winona State.
Minnesota Crookston (19-18)
Opponent: vs Northern State
Should Minnesota Crookston sweep Northern State, they are in. Alternatively, the Golden Eagles are also in the NSIC Tournament with a series win AND losses by BOTH Southwest Minnesota State and Winona State.
Southwest Minnesota State (18-19)
Opponent: at Minnesota State
Southwest Minnesota State (SMSU) has the toughest task by playing Minnesota State, regardless of whether or not Minnesota State rests its starters. The Mavericks recently came in 3rd in the regional rankings, and they are definitely trying to get a Top 2 seed to host. For SMSU, they need a lot of help to get into the tournament. They have to win at least two games AND Winona State loses at least one game AND Minnesota Duluth loses at least two games. That would enter a tiebreaker scenario between the three teams, which would go to wins against the Top team in the conference. Since this scenario would mean the Mustangs beat Minnesota State twice, they would get in. SMSU has lost series to all the teams in the hunt minus Duluth (a series split). So any tiebreaker with any other team aside Duluth, they would be out.
Winona State (18-19)
Opponent: at Wayne State (NE)
Similar to above, Winona State has to win at least two games to have a chance. Here’s one example of a path where the Warriors can get in. Winona State wins two against Wayne State AND Southwest Minnesota State loses a game AND Minnesota Duluth loses two games. Since all three teams would be at 20-20, Winona State wins the tiebreaker since they beat both teams in a series. Alternatively, they can win one game AND have both SMSU lose two games AND Duluth get swept to get in as well.
Concordia-St. Paul (16-21)
Opponent: at Sioux Falls
Unfortunately for CSP, their chances of getting in went to zero after the doubleheader loss to Minnesota Duluth on Wednesday. There are no tiebreakers that would allow them to get into the tournament.
PacWest
*Four Teams Get In
Note: Jessup, Vanguard, and Menlo are all transitioning from the NAIA level. Per the conference rules, teams making that transition and not full members of Division II are NOT eligible for the PacWest Postseason.
Westmont (32-9)
*Clinched spot in the PacWest Tournament
Opponent: at Azusa Pacific
Westmont had a halted game against Hawaii Hilo and it will not be made up, therefore, the Warriors will have one less conference game. Westmont can clinch the PacWest Regular Season Title Outright with just one win against Azusa Pacific on Thursday (5/1). Alternatively, the Warriors obtain the regular season crown with one Point Loma loss to Jessup this weekend.
Point Loma (29-11)
*Clinched spot in the PacWest Tournament
Opponent: vs Jessup
Point Loma’s only shot to claim the PacWest Regular Season Title outright is to sweep Jessup AND Westmont lose both games to Azusa Pacific.
Hawaii Pacific (27-15) has clinched a spot into the PacWest Tournament, which means two teams are competing for the final spot into the tournament. As a matter of fact, those two teams are playing each other this weekend.
Biola (20-20):
Opponent: vs Concordia Irvine
Since the PacWest does four game series, Biola can still get in with a series split. They have a one-game lead over Concordia Irvine (CUI) and simply need to win at least two of the four games to clinch the final spot in the tournament.
CUI (19-21):
Opponent: at Biola
Concordia Irvine clinches the final spot with a series win or better against Biola. The Golden Eagles MUST win at least three games to grab that last spot.
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