Frey's Focus - Conference Tournament Tiebreakers and Scenarios
- Robert Frey
- Apr 23
- 14 min read
Alright, buckle up because it's the final weekend of the regular season for some conferences, and things are getting wild in several DII baseball conferences. We're talking potential regular-season champs getting crowned and the last few precious spots in conference tournaments being snatched up (or lost!). I've dug into the scenarios for Conference Carolinas, GAC, Gulf South, Peach Belt, SAC, and SIAC. Below, I break down who needs what to win the regular season crown or just punch their ticket to the postseason tourney. It's complicated, with tiebreakers and even some guesswork involved (looking at you, KPI ), but let's dive in.
Check out the standings at diviibaseball.com/stats
Conference Carolinas:
*Ten Teams get into the conference tournament
Note: We recently spoke to Conference Carolinas Commissioner Chris Colvin about how the Conference will use KPI to determine seeding and the regular season champion. We do not know exactly how KPI is calculated, so I will give my best educated guess in terms of how teams can get in.
Looking at the KPI standings and diving into how it is calculated, it seems like any team that has a positive KPI will get into the tournament. So, eight of ten teams currently have a positive KPI (as of Wednesday 4/23 morning). Meaning, Young Harris (.162), North Greenville (.144), Francis Marion (.136), Belmont Abbey (.129), Barton (.087), UNC Pembroke (.060), Mount Olive (.049), and Emmanuel (.010) are all seemingly safe to get into the tournament.
That realistically leaves Shorter (-0.006), King (-0.080), and Erskine (-0.088) with chances to get into the tournament for the final two spots. Shorter and Erskine play each other, so I believe that Shorter can get in simply by winning one of those three games on the road. Erskine can get in with potentially a series win, or more likely a sweep. King is in a better spot in terms of KPI since they are on the road at a tough team in Belmont Abbey. With the advantage of that, it seems like if King can win a game against Belmont Abbey, they get in. Again, this is all speculation into attempting how to solve the KPI number for each game.
Thinking of who will win the regular season title for the conference, it appears it will come down to North Greenville and Young Harris. Francis Marion has finished their conference schedule, so their KPI will stay locked in at 0.136. North Greenville plays Southern Wesleyan (-0.130 KPI) and will likely not only need to sweep, but win by lot in each game AND need Young Harris to lose a game or more at Emmanuel. For Young Harris, their path to the regular season title seems simple, win out and they are the Conference Carolinas Regular Season Champions. A series win could also very likely crown them as champions as well.
GAC:
*Eight Teams get into the conference tournament
Note: the Arkansas Tech/Southwestern Oklahoma State third game was cancelled back in February and will NOT be made up per sources. Therefore, Arkansas Tech and Southwestern Oklahoma State will have one less game played than the conference.
Harding (21-9):
*Clinched spot in GAC Tournament
Opponent: at Arkansas Tech
Harding’s chance to clinch the GAC regular season title outright is to either sweep Arkansas Tech AND Southern Arkansas lose a game to Arkansas-Monticello OR win two of three against Arkansas Tech and Southern Arkansas lose the series against Arkansas-Monticello. In the event that Harding and Southern Arkansas are tied, Harding does NOT have the head-to-head tiebreaker, as they were swept by Southern Arkansas earlier this month. Therefore, Harding would get the No.2 seed in that scenario.
Southern Arkansas (21-9):
*Clinched spot in GAC Tournament
Opponent: vs Arkansas-Monticello
Similar as above in terms of clinching the title outright, Southern Arkansas will need to sweep Arkansas-Monticello AND Arkansas Tech win at least one game vs Harding, but NOT SWEEP.
Alternatively, Southern Arkansas can win the series AND Harding win only one game against Arkansas Tech to clinch the title outright. Should Harding and Southern Arkansas be tied at the end of the regular season, Southern Arkansas would be the No.1 seed with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Harding.
Arkansas Tech (20-9):
*Clinched spot in GAC Tournament
Opponent: vs Harding
Since Arkansas Tech has one less game played, there are some minor advantages to that. Simply put, if Arkansas Tech sweeps Harding AND Southern Arkansas loses at least one game to Arkansas-Monticello, the Wonder Boys will clinch the GAC title outright. Another way Arkansas Tech can clinch the title outright is a series win over Harding AND a series win or better by Arkansas-Monticello over Southern Arkansas. Those are the only two ways Arkansas Tech can claim the regular season crown.
Arkansas-Monticello (19-11), Henderson State (19-11), and Ouachita Baptist (18-12) have all clinched spots in the GAC Tournament. That leaves two available spots for four teams who have a chance.
Northwestern Oklahoma State (14-16)
Opponent: vs Southwestern Oklahoma State
Northwestern Oklahoma State (NWOSU) has the simplest route of getting into the tournament. Win one game against Southwestern Oklahoma State (SWOSU) and they get in. The Rangers have the head-to-head advantage over both Southeastern Oklahoma State and Oklahoma Baptist, with series wins over both of those teams.
Southeastern Oklahoma State (13-17)
Opponent: at East Central
Southeastern Oklahoma State also can control their own destiny, as two wins against East Central this weekend guarantees them a spot in the GAC Tournament. Another way the Savage Storm can get into the tournament is a single win against East Central AND NWOSU wins at least one game against SWOSU AND Oklahoma Baptist loses one game to Southern Nazarene. Southeastern Oklahoma State has the head-to-head advantage over Oklahoma Baptist, but not NWOSU.
Oklahoma Baptist (12-18)
Opponent: vs Southern NazareneOklahoma Baptist’s path into the GAC Tournament will require some help from other teams. There is no chance the Bison get in without winning at least two games this weekend. The least complicated way is to sweep Southern Nazarene AND Southeastern Oklahoma State lose two games to East Central OR Northwestern Oklahoma State to get swept by Southwestern Oklahoma State. The other option that could happen for the Bison to get into the tournament is Oklahoma Baptist wins two against Southern Nazarene AND Southeastern Oklahoma State is swept at East Central AND Northwestern Oklahoma State wins one game against Southwestern Oklahoma State.
Southwestern Oklahoma State (11-18)
Opponent: at Northwestern Oklahoma State
Like Oklahoma Baptist, Southwestern Oklahoma State (SWOSU) will need some help to get in, but have a great chance should they take care of business. At minimum, SWOSU will need to win the series against NWOSU to have a chance of getting into the tournament. The Bulldogs’ best shot is to sweep NWOSU AND Oklahoma Baptist lose a game to Southern Nazarene. Since SWOSU has played one less conference game, they have some advantage to get into the tournament. There’s an opportunity where SWOSU wins two of three against NWOSU and goes to the tournament, but would need Southeastern Oklahoma State to get swept AND Oklahoma Baptist to lose two games for that to happen.
Gulf South:
*Eight Teams get into the conference tournament
As a precursor, the Valdosta State vs Union game back on February 16th was cancelled and will NOT be made up in the event either team could enter a tie breaking scenario, per sources in the Gulf South. So, both teams will finish with one less conference game than the rest of the league.
Delta State (23-7):
*Clinched spot in GSC Tournament
Opponent: at Mississippi College
Delta State can clinch the Gulf South Regular Season Title and No.1 Seed outright with a series win over Mississippi College. The Statesmen can also clinch it outright with just a win over Mississippi College AND Valdosta State loses at least one game to West Florida. Delta State will also have opportunities to clinch a share of the title as well, but would be the two seed to West Florida in that scenario.
Valdosta State (21-8):
*Clinched spot in GSC Tournament
Opponent: vs West Florida
Valdosta State’s best opportunity to clinch the Gulf South regular season title outright is a sweep over West Florida and Delta State loses at least two games to Mississippi College. The Blazers can also clinch the title outright with a series win over West Florida AND a Mississippi College sweep over Delta State.
West Florida (20-10):
*Clinched spot in GSC Tournament
Opponent: at Valdosta State
West Florida has one way of clinching a share of the Gulf South title and becoming the No.1 seed in the tournament. For that to happen, they need to sweep Valdosta State AND Mississippi College needs to sweep Delta State. The Argos get the one seed due to the tie breaking procedures for seeding, which is head-to-head record, where West Florida beat Delta State in two of three games in the Feb. 28 to Mar. 1 series.
Mississippi College has clinched a spot into the Gulf South Tournament, leaving four spots up for grabs with five teams able to clinch it.
Montevallo, Lee, West Alabama, and Trevecca Nazarene are all 15-15 in conference play. Union is 14-15. Any of those five teams have a chance of getting into the tournament. Below are who the five teams play on the final weekend.
Montevallo (15-15): at AUM
Lee (15-15): vs Trevecca
West Alabama (15-15): at Alabama Huntsville
Trevecca Nazarene (15-15): at Lee
Union (14-15): vs Christian Brothers
I’ll start with Lee and Trevecca Nazarene. Since they play each other and are 15-15 for four spots left, the winner of the series will get into the conference tournament. Since that scenario happens, a series win from either or both of Montevallo and West Alabama this weekend guarantees them a spot into the conference tournament. Since both of those things happen, Union can get into the conference tournament with a series win over Christian Brothers. Union can also get in with at least one win over Christian Brothers AND one of the four teams above them loses at least two games. Montevallo and/or West Alabama can also get in with a win AND Union loses two games.
Peach Belt
*Eight Teams get into the conference tournament
North Georgia (21-3):
*Clinched spot in PBC Tournament
Opponent: at Georgia College
The Nighthawks have impressed in the final season of coach Tom Cantrell. North Georgia can clinch the Gulf South Regular Season Title outright with a sweep at Georgia College. The Nighthawks can also clinch the title outright with a series win over Georgia College AND a Lander loss at Georgia Southwestern. North Georgia would be the No.1 seed for the tournament in any event that they are tied with Lander for first place, since they won the head-to-head matchup.
Lander (20-4):
*Clinched spot in PBC Tournament
Opponent: at Georgia Southwestern
Lander has the opportunity to repeat as Peach Belt Regular Season Champions outright. They will need to sweep Georgia Southwestern AND need North Georgia to lose two games to Georgia College. Alternatively, the Bearcats can win their series against GSW AND Georgia College sweep North Georgia.
Georgia College (18-6):
*Clinched spot in PBC Tournament
Opponent: vs North Georgia
Georgia College can only clinch a share of the regular season title and the No.1 seed if they sweep North Georgia AND Lander gets swept by Georgia Southwestern. In the event that all three teams finish 21-6 in Peach Belt play, here’s what I believe is going to happen (haven’t received any information on tiebreakers from the conference):Lander beat Georgia College in a series but lost to North Georgia.Georgia College sweeps North Georgia (if it does happen) but lost to Lander
North Georgia beat Lander in a series but got swept by Georgia College (if it does happen)
If that happens, I believe that it will go this way:
1st: The tiebreak will be based upon record against common opponents, ordered by seed. Since Georgia Southwestern would win two of three against Lander in this scenario, they would be the highest team not tied. Lander would be out of the tiebreak since both Georgia College and North Georgia went 2-1 against GSW while Lander went 1-2 (if it happens). Then, we’d go to the next highest team, which we will assume Columbus State. Georgia College lost two of three, while North Georgia won two of three.
Simply put, if this scenario is true. If all three teams are tied at 21-6, North Georgia would get the one seed, Georgia College would get the two seed, Lander would get the three seed.
Georgia Southwestern (16-8), Columbus State (14-10), and Flagler (12-12) have all clinched a spot in the PBC tournament. No matter what, these three teams will be seeded, but have no chance at becoming a top seed.
Three teams have an opportunity to get in for two remaining spots. Below is the breakdown of how those teams can get in.
USC Aiken (8-16): USC Aiken, currently sitting seventh, can get in simply by winning one game against USC Beaufort. There is an opportunity they can get in as well if they are swept, they would need Augusta to lose at least two games against Flagler for that to happen.
Augusta (6-18): Augusta has a relatively simple path of clinching a spot into the conference tournament as well. The Jags would need to win a game against Flagler AND need USC Beaufort to lose one game against USC Aiken. Augusta has the head-to-head tiebreaker over USC Beaufort with a series win back in February.
USC Beaufort (5-19): Fun fact, did you know that USC Aiken and USC Beaufort played each other in the final weekend last year, where the series winner got the eighth and final spot in the tournament? Here we are again. USC Beaufort has the toughest path of the three. They can clinch a spot in the tournament, but would need to sweep USC Aiken AND Augusta to lose at least two games against Flagler. They could also get in if they win two of three against USC Aiken AND Augusta gets swept by Flagler. USC Beaufort does NOT have the head-to-head tiebreaker against Augusta, as they lost back in February.
In the rare event that all three teams finish 8-19, there’s going to be some chaos in terms of determining the two teams that get in. Using the same logic as earlier (record vs common opponents), it’s a little hectic. First, all three teams were swept by the three teams who could be in the top seed. The next highest seed could be either Georgia Southwestern or Columbus State, in which USC Aiken is the only team of the three to win against either of those teams. So it seems like USC Aiken is in no matter what. It would then revert to the next team, which is Flagler. This would assume Augusta beats Flagler so, Augusta would get the final spot.
SAC
*Eight Teams get into the conference tournament
Catawba (22-5):
*Clinched spot in SAC Tournament
Opponent: at Lincoln Memorial
Catawba can go back-to-back and clinch the SAC Regular Season Title and the No.1 Seed outright with a series win over Lincoln Memorial. Alternatively, Catawba can clinch the title outright with a win and at least one loss from Lenoir-Rhyne. There are ways that Catawba can clinch a share as well, but I will spare the details.
Lenoir-Rhyne (20-7):
*Clinched spot in SAC TournamentOpponent: at Anderson
Lenoir-Rhyne can clinch the SAC Regular Season Title and the No.1 Seed outright with a sweep over Anderson and a Lincoln Memorial sweep over Catawba. Lenoir-Rhyne can clinch a share of the title with a sweep over Anderson and Catawba loses two games to Lincoln Memorial.
Carson-Newman (19-8):*Clinched spot in SAC Tournament
Opponent: vs Mars Hill
Carson-Newman only has a chance to clinch a share of the SAC Regular Season Title. The Eagles would need to sweep Mars Hill AND need Lincoln Memorial to sweep Catawba AND need Lenoir-Rhyne to lose at least one game to Anderson.
Now, here is the fun part. Coker, UVA Wise, and Limestone are 14-13. Lincoln Memorial and Wingate are 13-14. Newberry is 14-16 and Anderson is 11-16. Newberry has finished their conference schedule and is locked in at 14-16. All eight have some chance of getting into the tournament, and there’s a chance that SIX teams finish with a 14-16 record. That would create a LOT of chaos for four spots in the conference tournament.
Here’s the schedules for each of those teams, minus Newberry.
Coker (14-13) - at Tusculum
UVA Wise (14-13) - at Limestone
Limestone (14-13) - vs UVA Wise
Lincoln Memorial (13-14) - vs Catawba
Wingate (13-14) - at Emory & Henry
Anderson (11-16) - vs Lenoir-Rhyne
For Coker, UVA Wise, Limestone, their way of getting into the tournament is simple. Win a game, get into the tournament.
For Lincoln Memorial and Wingate, they need to win at least two games to clinch a spot.
Anderson’s path is a difficult one, as they need to sweep nationally ranked Lenoir-Rhyne AND need Catawba to sweep Lincoln Memorial AND need Emory & Henry to sweep Wingate. Anderson does not have the head-to-head advantage to be ahead of Newberry.In the event that two or more teams are tied to determine whether or not a team gets into the tournament, here’s the tiebreaking procedures set by the conference itself:Full Document (tie breakers begin on Page 11)
C. Seeding and Tie-Breaker Formula
The seeding for the tournament shall be based on the results of the regular season conference
games (winning percentage). If a tie(s) exist in the final regular season standings, the following
criteria will used to determine the tournament seeds:
1. Two-way Ties. The following methods (in order) will be used to break the tie:
a. Head-to-head record among the tied teams.
b. If a tie still exists or the teams did not play any conference games against each other,
a comparison of each team’s winning percentage against the highest seeded common
opponent.
c. If a tie still exists, then a comparison of each team’s winning percentage against the next
highest seeded common opponent (and continuing straight down through the standings,
if necessary).
d. If a tie still exists, the Commissioner shall conduct a coin flip.
2. Three-way Ties: (when one team is removed from the three-way tie, the two-way tie is
broken using the above criteria)
a. The highest winning percentage in head-to-head competition among the tied teams. If
the tied teams did not all play each other (e.g. Team A played Team C, Team B played
Team C, but Teams A and B did not play each other), then this criteria is skipped and
No. 2 below is the first criteria.
b. If a tie still exists, a comparison of each team’s winning percentage against the highest
seeded common opponent.
c. If a tie still exists, a comparison of each team’s winning percentage against the next
highest seeded common opponent (and continuing straight down through the standings,
if necessary).
d. If a tie still exists, the Commissioner shall put the team names in a hat and conduct a
blind draw. The first team drawn receives the higher seed.
3. Four-way (or greater) Ties: The same criteria listed in “B” shall be used. Once one team
is removed from the four-way (or greater) tie, the remaining three- and/or two-way ties are
broken using the processes in “1” or “2”. If the tie cannot be broken by that method, it shall
be broken by a coin flip conducted by the Commissioner.
SIAC:
*Eight Teams Get into the Conference Tournament
Lane and Kentucky State had one game cancelled and it will not be made up, therefore Lane will have one less game played than their conference opponents.
Spring Hill has already clinched the SIAC Regular Season title and the No.1 seed in the tournament after last weekend’s sweep over Benedict.
Savannah State (23-7), Edward Waters (22-8), Albany State (20-10), Miles (16-12), and Benedict (16-12) have already clinched spots into the conference tournament.
There are four teams battling for the final two spots in the tournament.
Clark Atlanta (12-18): Clark Atlanta Plays at Edward Waters. If Clark Atlanta sweeps, they are in the tournament. If Clark Atlanta wins two games AND Lane loses at least one game, they are in the tournament. Clark Atlanta has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tuskegee and Morehouse college should it come to that scenario.
Tuskegee (12-18): Tuskegee plays at LeMoyne-Owen. Same as above for Clark Atlanta applies for Tuskegee. If Tuskegee sweeps, they are in, no matter what. If Tuskegee wins two games and Lane loses at least one game, they are also in. Tuskegee only holds a tiebreaker over Morehouse.
Lane (11-18): Lane hosts Miles College on the final weekend. For Lane, if they sweep Miles AND Clark Atlanta OR Tuskegee lose a game, the Dragons are in the tournament. Lane can also win two games, but need two losses from one of Tuskegee or Clark Atlanta.
Morehouse (10-20): Morehouse has a fleeting path to get into the SIAC Tournament. For Morehouse to get in, they would need to sweep Savannah State AND need Edward Waters to sweep Clark Atlanta AND LeMoyne-Owen to sweep Tuskegee. Another path involves sweeping Savannah State AND Miles winning two or more games against Lane AND Clark Atlanta OR Tuskegee to be swept by their opponents.
So there you have it – a whirlwind tour through the potential chaos of the final regular-season weekend. As you can see, a lot is still up in the air, with some teams controlling their destiny and others needing a specific sequence of events, maybe even some help, to fall their way. From potential three-way ties to massive logjams for the final tournament spots, it's going to be a fascinating weekend of baseball. We'll just have to see how the games play out!