Frey's Focus: Super Regional Predictions in the Central, South, Southeast, and West Regions

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With the recent travel schedule that I have been on lately, I thought this would be a good time to start making some predictions of who will represent the Central, South, Southeast, and West Regions in the supers and the predicted winner who I think will go to Cary.

First, I had the pleasure of seeing Central Missouri in Quincy over the weekend and Minnesota State in Wisconsin in a Monday doubleheader. I wanted to talk about them briefly before we go over the four regions. 

First, we will start with the No.3 Central Missouri Mules. I was excited to see a perennial power in D2 Baseball live for the first time. It was an impressive display offensive and on the basepaths. The Mules look aggressive all weekend long on the basepaths, stealing bases, taking the extra base, and more. It paid off quite a bit, there were a few times where they were able to manufacture a run just from quality baserunning, which helped them to go 3-1 on the week. It was great to see some quality arms in JD McReynolds and Chris Massey throw. McReynolds has been the stalwart back-end arm for the Mules for years (he was also able to put together a 3-inning start on Tuesday) and it showed. He threw 2.1 IP and allowed only one hit with 4 strikeouts. He was above 90 mph on the fastball and the slider had some late bite. Chris Massey didn’t allow a hit and struck out 5 to get the 3-inning save. Massey caught my attention when he struck out 9 of the 11 batters he faced against Missouri Western. Massey also just had a frisbee of a breaking ball with a fastball that topped at 92 mph. The craziest part? McReynolds is 6’4 while Massey is 5’9. It’s a nightmare to have to face those arms back-to-back. 

One person really impressed offensively and on the basepaths and that was Dayvin Johnson. The Wichita State transfer put together great at-bat after great at-bat. He had 8 hits on the weekend with a pair of home runs and a stolen base. He can move on the bases as well in center field.

No.13 Minnesota State picked up a Monday doubleheader against a 14-2 Wisconsin-Parkside. It certainly lived up to the hype, as Minnesota State took both games. Another team I was excited to see due to their sustained success. Seeing Zach Stroh’s day leading off for the Mavericks with the force of Jake Berkland, Ike Mezzenga, and Louis Magers in the 2, 3, and 4 spot makes me think that they may have the best first four hitters in the lineup in the Central Region, possibly all of Division II. Stroh had six hits in the doubleheader, Berkland had five with a triple and a home run, Ike Mezzenga had 7 RBI to go with a home run and 4 total hits, and Louis Magers homered in both games. I also had the opportunity of seeing Minnesota State’s LHP and ace Nathan Culley. Only throwing 69 pitches (since it was a Monday game), Culley struck out four over 5 innings. He had some attention from scouts there and was in the low 90s with the fastball and an impressive breaking ball.

It should come as no shock when I say that the Central Region Super Regional will be Central Missouri and Minnesota State.

RECORDS AND RANKINGS AS OF MORNING OF WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19

Central

Predicted Matchup: Central Missouri (17-5) vs Minnesota State (14-1)

Other Possible Teams: Fort Hays State (17-5), Augustana (11-6), Harding (21-5)

You have to be ECSTATIC if you are a supporter of Fort Hays State! They are 17-5 and leading the MIAA with a 12-1 record. They swept then ranked Central Oklahoma over the weekend and beat a really good Washburn team when they play at home. This team is firing on all cylinders. It helps when you have Trey DeGarmo, who is hitting .368 with 9 HR and 31 RBI and got the MIAA Hitter of the Week awards. It helps when you have 6’7 Ty Riley leading the staff, Who is 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP over 40.1 IP. It helps when you have a lockdown closer in Brandon Chavez, who has 7 saves with 30 strikeouts and 4 walks over 24 innings (3.00 ERA). 

South

Predicted Matchup: #1 Tampa (20-4) vs RV Rollins (18-6)

Other Possible Teams: #8 Florida Southern (19-5), Embry-Riddle (16-7), #14 Delta State (19-7), RV West Florida (16-9)

It’s hard to go against Tampa, they may not have the team they did last year, but they have Skylar Gonzalez and he hasn’t lost (3-0, 2.63 ERA). CJ Williams is 5-1 with a 3.67 ERA. Jordan Williams is hitting .398/.473/.602 with 39 stolen bases. He’s a lock to break the stolen base record at Tampa (52) and may break the D2 record (97). The Spartans have seven guys above .300 at the plate, they will be a tough team to beat twice in the postseason.

Rollins is a bit of a surprise pick, but when they do make the postseason (especially recently) they have had success. Think back to 2022 and 2023, where they made it to Cary both years, including a National Runner Up in 2023. They sit 8-1 in SSC play and look the part of a deep postseason run. They have two guys (Nick Berger and Tyler Toro) with ERAs under 3 (2.75 and 2.87, respectively). Jeslyn Whitehead is tearing the cover off the ball, hitting .436 with 3 HR and 22 RBI. Mason Wilson is also hitting well, posting a .352 average with 8 HR and 36 RBI.

Southeast

Predicted Matchup: #5 Lenoir-Rhyne (21-4) vs #6 Catawba (20-7) 

Other Possible Teams: #7 North Greenville (22-6), #22 Carson-Newman (20-6) RV Barton 17-10, RV Coker (19-8), RV Flagler (20-6), RV Lander (20-7), North Georgia (18-8)

This is easily the DEEPEST region in D2 Baseball. We have 13 of the 40 teams ranked or receiving votes in our March 17 poll. 

The Lenoir-Rhyne hype train is REAL. What an unbelievable job Adam Skonieczki has done in his first year at the helm with the Bears. 21-4 and hitting .367! as a team. Good luck getting Mackenzie Wainwright out, he’s hitting .477 with 10 doubles, 4 triples, 12 home runs and 36 RBI. He’s also 14-14 on stolen bases. Seven players have 20+ RBI. Sal Carricato is hitting .375 with 13 homers and 41 RBI. This team will be tough to get out, especially if they garner a host bid for the postseason. Andrew Harlow is 5-0 with a 1.72 ERA over 47 innings. However, William Girardi may have better stuff although he is 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA.

Catawba has the pitching again for a deep postseason run. If they somehow secure a host bid, look out. Payne Stolsworth has a 2.96 ERA over 45.2 IP as the ace of the staff. Hayden Simmerson has a 2.73 ERA over 29.2 IP with 7 saves as the top relief option. Cole Hales is hitting .416 and is a tough out. Dylan Driver is hitting .324 with a team-leading 7 HR and 23 RBI. They represented the Southeast Region a year ago, and I don’t see much difference that they could do the same again in 2025 with their experience. 

West

Predicted Matchup: #2 Westmont (22-3) vs RV Cal State San Bernardino (19-7) 

Other Possible Teams: #16 Point Loma (16-8) #23 Chico State (16-9) Cal State Dominguez Hills (15-10) Cal State Monterey Bay (14-7), Northwest Nazarene (20-10)

Before we discuss the matchups, it has been released that Azusa Pacific will add football and transition all of their sports to Division III for the 2026-2027 schoolyear. Read more: https://thesciac.org/news/2025/3/14/general-sciac-approves-dii-azusa-pacific-for-full-membership-reclassification-to-diii.aspx

Westmont was a great team last year (33-15-3) under previous head coach Tyler LaTorre. I didn’t expect them to be on THIS kind of run 25 games in at 22-3 under Paul Svagdis. A proven winner, Svagdis has taken this team to a new level, a #2 ranking in our March 17 poll. While they weren’t postseason eligible a year ago from the transition from NAIA, Westmont is postseason eligible this year as their reclassification progressed a year early. The Warriors were on a 17-game win streak recently, they outscored another ranked team in Point Loma by 11 in a series, winning 3 of the 4 games. Bryan Peck and Ryan Humphreys have been a great 1-2 punch, they are a combined 8-0. Bryce McFeely (.341), Jack Bollengier (.360), Michael Soper (.366), Jesse Di Maggio (.380) are all providing the spark offensively above .340. At this rate, there’s a good chance you can pencil in Santa Barbara for a West Regional and they may host their way all the way to Cary.

It’s hard to ignore the offensive prowess Cal State San Bernardino has put on with their impressive team .358 average. This has remnants of the 2023 team who did make it to Cary. Three players are above .400, with Jason Shedlock leading the charge at .454. Jeremy Giesegh is hitting .413 while Daryl Ruiz is hitting .409. That doesn’t include Jacob Mejia’s .398 average. The Yotes average 10.5 runs per game and have scored 8+ runs in 16 of their 26 games this season. Dylan O’Connor has been making strides on the mound, improving to 4-1 after throwing 7 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts in his start this past weekend. If CSUSB can improve its pitching down the stretch, this will be a DANGEROUS team.