Frey's Focus - The Home Stretch of the Regular Season

We have a BIG weekend coming up with Easter weekend in D2 Baseball, which means we get more baseball a day early! Speaking of big, we are approaching the final weeks of the regular season for many conferences. Here’s the breakdown of EVERY conference by region and how many weekends remain of the regular season.

ATLANTIC:PSAC - 3 weekends

MEC - 3 weekends

CENTRAL:GAC - 2 weekends

MIAA - 3 weekends

NSIC - 3 weekends

EAST:

CACC - 2 weekends + conference midweek

ECC - 3 weekends

NE10 - 3 weekends

MIDWEST:

G-MAC - 3 weekends

GLIAC - 3 weekends

GLVC - 3 weekends

SOUTH:

Gulf South - 2 weekends

SSC - 4 weekends (no conference tournament)

SIAC - 2 weekends

SOUTHEAST:

Conference Carolinas - 2 weekends

Peach Belt - 2 weekends

SAC - 2 weekends

SOUTH CENTRAL:

Lone Star - 2 weekends

RMAC - 3 weekends

WEST:

CCAA - 3 weekends

GNAC - 3 weekends

PacWest - 3 weekends

If you haven’t checked out our newest stats page, we have it up to the public! This was EXTREMELY fun to work on for the fans and help increase the light of amazing D2 Baseball players. It’s the ONLY place for a one-stop site for stats, standings, and more for EVERY team. It also includes postseason metrics, the ones that are used to determine seeding in the Division II Baseball postseason. Below is what it looks like on a computer:

Now, getting into the four regions, the Central, South, Southeast, and West. This week, I will predict which teams will win the regular season conference title within each of those four regions. Let me know who you think will win the region.

CENTRAL REGION:

GAC

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Southern Arkansas

The Muleriders, currently in first place as of this writing, certainly have a path to end the season as the GAC Regular Season champions. With two weekends left, Southern Arkansas travels to Southeastern Oklahoma St. then plays a good Arkansas-Monticello team at home the following weekend. Why I think the Muleriders will win: the two teams right behind them, Harding and Arkansas Tech, will play each other in a three-game set in the final weekend. I believe neither of those teams will sweep that weekend. With Southern Arkansas having a one-game advantage, I believe that will be enough for them to hold on to that one spot. Look out for the bullpen ace in Austin Adair. A 2.34 ERA in 42.1 IP (21 appearances), Adair will definitely see his workload continue if not increase to keep that top spot and to continue winning when the postseason starts.

MIAA

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Fort Hays State

It seems like the MIAA regular season champion will come down to one of two teams. Central Missouri or Fort Hays State. Could we see a different regular season champion other than Central Missouri since 2018? I believe we will. Fort Hays State has a one-game lead in the MIAA standings. They had a great comeback against Washburn to keep that lead. 

Here’s Fort Hays remaining schedule:

Apr 17-19: at Newman

Apr 22: vs Emporia State 

Apr 25-27: vs Northwest Missouri State

May 1-3: at Rogers State

Here’s Central Missouri’s remaining schedule:

Apr 17-18: at Missouri Southern

Apr 23: vs Washburn

Apr 25-27: vs Northeastern State

Apr 29: at Drury (non-conference)

May 1-3: at Newman

On that information, the Mules have the tougher schedule, playing at Missouri Southern is tough. However, so is playing at Rogers State for Fort Hays State. However, I believe both teams will go 8-2 in conference play to finish out the season. It largely depends on how Central Missouri performs at Missouri Southern.

In Fort Hays State’s case, they have a great #1 in Ty Riley. They also have a great back-end arm in Brandon Chavez and an offense that hits .300 as a team, six guys above that number. It will certainly be a race to the finish, especially since UCM has the head-to-head record against Fort Hays State.

NSIC

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Minnesota State

With 11 games left in the conference season, Minnesota State at 24-3 (31-4 overall) has a four-game lead over Augustana at 20-7. With the way Minnesota State has played this year, I don’t see them losing much if at all the rest of the way. The only team I can see them losing to is the three-game against Augustana April 26 and 27. Even if Augustana sweeps that series, it still may not be enough. It’s hard to beat a team that’s hitting .337 in the NSIC with two guys with 10+ home runs in Ike Mezzenga and Louis Magers. It’s hard beating a rotation of Nathan Culley (8-0, 2.02 ERA in 49 IP), Louis Magers (4-0, 2.48 ERA in 32.2 IP), and Sam George (4-0, 2.79 ERA in 29 IP) when none of them have a loss on their record. 

SOUTH REGION:

Gulf South

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Delta State

Delta State (29-12, 21-6 in GSC play)  currently has a two-and-a-half game lead over Valdosta State and a three-game lead over West Florida. The Statesmen’s remaining conference schedule is against AUM at home and on the road at Mississippi College. I see them winning both series. Based on that, Delta State at worst will finish 25-8 in conference play. Meanwhile, both Valdosta and West Florida play each other the following weekend (April 25 and 26) and I personally don’t think either team will get a sweep in that series. 

Drake Fontenot (9-0, 1.24 ERA in 79.2 IP) has been unbelievable all season and I don’t expect that to stop. Dylan Farley and Logan Eldridge will keep the Statesmen in the ballgame for an offense that features Brett Burrell (.401 average, 8 HR, 44 RBI) and Dylan Coleman (.333, 9 HR, 33 RBI).

Want to learn more about the Gulf South Conference? Check out our interview with GSC Commissioner Matt Wilson.

SIAC

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Spring Hill

Spring Hill can become the first team to clinch a regular season title this weekend with two wins over Benedict College, which is likely to happen. The Badgers have swept seven of their nine conference series and the other two was a series win and a series split (one game was cancelled). They have a potent lineup headlined by Jackson Bell (.413 average, 13 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 42 RBI) and Seth Williams (.368, 11 2B, 9 HR, 50 RBI). On the pitching side, Korey Bunselmeyer is 9-0 with a 2.79 ERA in 61.1 IP. Kai St. Germaine is as good as they come in the back-end, he has a 1.69 ERA in 12 appearances (16 innings).

Sunshine State

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Tampa

Who else but the defending National Champions? The Spartans are on the road three of the next four weekends, and while they are nearly impossible to beat at home (23-1 record), there’s a rather realistic chance they go 11-1 if not 12-0 down the stretch. Tampa has a two game lead over Florida Southern in the conference standings. Jordan Williams is an incredible ballplayer. He’s already broken the single-season school record in stolen bases with 56 and is hitting .363 on the season. J.D. Urso has really picked it up as of late and is hitting .346 for Tampa.

SOUTHEAST REGION:

Conference Carolinas

Predicted Regular Season Winner: North Greenville

In the first year of the new KPI standings that the conference instituted, it’s rather difficult to say who will be crowned regular season champion. Learn more about the KPI standings when we talked to Conference Carolinas Commissioner Chris Colvin. However, it’s hard to ignore what North Greenville could do to finish out the regular season. The Trailblazers will play at King this weekend and host Southern Wesleyan next weekend. Although they are 2nd in the KPI standings as of Wednesday, April 16, a very likely 6-0 run to finish conference play leads me to believe that North Greenville will finish on top of the standings. North Greenville has won 14 straight games and I don’t expect that to stop anytime soon. Brett Blomquist leads this offense, hitting .437 and has hit safely in 26 of his last 27 games. How about Matty Brown? The Freshman, since stepping into the rotation, has a 2.56 ERA over 38.2 innings.

Peach Belt

Predicted Regular Season Winner: North Georgia & Lander

Three teams are within one game of each other in the standings, as North Georgia is 18-3, Georgia College is 17-4, and Lander is also 17-4. This may be the hardest one to pick of the three because each team has a legitimate case to play their way into winning the regular season title, or a share of it. In terms of sharing the title, I think it will be Lander and North Georgia who both finish at 22-5 in conference play. Lander has a series against last place Claflin and goes on the road to Georgia Southwestern the following weekend. Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if Lander goes 5-1. North Georgia has a weekend set at home against USC before playing on the road at Georgia College to finish the season. Georgia College will play at Columbus State this weekend. I believe both teams will finish 4-2, which puts the tie between North Georgia and Lander. However, for conference tournament seeding, North Georgia will get the number one seed due to the head-to-head series win against Lander.

Lookout for Phillip Ard for North Georgia, he’s hitting .335 with 18 homers (Top 10 in D2) and 74 RBI (2nd in the country behind Adam Paniagua’s 75).

SAC

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Catawba

Catawba has an opportunity to clinch the SAC Regular Season Title for the 2nd straight season with a sweep this weekend. However, the Indians play a tough opponent in Carson-Newman, the team in 2nd place, two games behind Catawba. Home field advantage plays a role, and for Catawba’s sake, they are at home against Carson-Newman this weekend. The Indians have been on a tear as of late, sweeping their last three conference weekends. Cole Hales is hitting .392 to lead the team. Payne Stolsworth is his usual self with an 8-1 record and a 2.62 ERA over 68.2 innings.

WEST REGION:

CCAA

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Cal State Dominguez Hills

While the rest of the top half of the conference still has three conference weekends, Cal State Dominguez Hills (CSUDH) has just two conference weekends remaining. The Toros travel to Cal State San Bernardino this weekend before waiting a week to host Cal State LA (May 1 to May 3) at home. At 21-11 in conference play, CSUDH has the opportunity to win this conference. They are the only team in the Top 6 in the standings to not lose a series. I don’t envision the Toros losing a series the rest of the season. The two teams behind them, Cal State Monterey Bay and San Francisco State, play each other in the final weekend of the season. I expect that to be a close series. Justin Abercrombie always gives the Toros a chance to win, as he is 8-1 with a 2.10 ERA over 60 innings. 

GNAC

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Northwest Nazarene

Similar to the situation with Cal State Dominguez Hills, Northwest Nazarene will only play two of the three remaining weekends, as they have a bye in the first weekend of May. The Nighthawks currently sit 3 games above MSU Billings at 18-5. One key cog that has been a staple for Northwest Nazarene this year is the duo of Cole Calnon and Ernesto Lugo-Canchola. Both pitchers have an ERA below two (Calnon - 1.56 in 63.1 IP, Lugo-Canchole - 1.78 in 55.2 IP). Calnon also leads the country with seven, yes seven complete games. What’s been helpful on offense is Kaleb Karpstein’s .394 average. 

PacWest

Predicted Regular Season Winner: Westmont

Westmont has really been a bright spot this year under first year head coach Paul Svagdis. There’s some doubts when there’s a transition in coaches, but the Warriors have not lost a step from a year ago. In fact, they are better. Thankfully, Westmont is eligible for the NCAA postseason and are frontrunners to host a West Regional. Aside from the road loss to Jessup, Westmont has not lost a series in conference play. They currently sit 3.5 games ahead of Point Loma with two weekends and change left (they will play Azusa Pacific in a DH from a makeup on May 1). It will be a tall task to stop this team behind a rotation of Bryan Peck (4-1, 4.06 ERA in 64.1 innings) and Ryan Humphreys (7-1, 3.17 ERA in 54 innings), plus a back end arm like Zach Yates (2.73 ERA, 11 saves in 26.1 innings).